The Embarrassing Hurricane Season of '06

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SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NATIONAL RADAR WHAT CAUSES HURRICANES?
Total named storms (tropical storms & hurricanes)
as of given dates for this year so far, and compared to normal.
The Embarrassing Hurricane Season of '06:
Should We be Making Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts?


(November 6, 2006) After a very busy 2004 hurricane season, and the record breaking 2005 season, it was widely assumed by long-range forecasters that 2006 would be a bad hurricane season as well.

But Mother Nature had other plans.

The exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures we experienced in 2005 disappeared. Increasing wind shear, possibly due to a building El Nino, started blowing the tops off of any systems that might have strengthened into tropical cyclones.

And now, as we approach the end of the hurricane season, we are below even an average season, with only 9 named storms, when there are usually 10 by this date.

Some coastal residents are angry. Florida radio talk shows have had irate callers complain about the blown seasonal forecast, as well as warnings of a potential Category 2 hurricane that ended up providing little more than a blustery day.

My oldest sister and her husband have just built a house in North Carolina to escape to when their Florida Keys home is threatened by the approach of hurricane season. Now she is hopping mad, too.

Even though she is a science-savvy person who recognizes the limits of weather forecasting, my sister believed the long range forecasts of a 2006 hurricane season that was supposed to be well above normal. She and her husband left Florida for North Carolina when they didn't need to.

This begs the question: Should any forecaster that values their reputation be making long range forecasts for the upcoming hurricane season? Oh, sure, in a freedom-loving country like ours, people can forecast whatever they want to. But when the reputation of our esteemed hurricane experts is so badly damaged, does it do any good to keep making forecasts that have, historically speaking, so little skill?

The media is partly to blame for the problem. If a long-range hurricane forecaster announces that a season is expected to be above normal, but also cautions the reporter that these types of forecasts have little skill, more often than not the reporter won't complicate the story with such wishy-washy details. In the never ending quest for higher ratings, many TV on-camera meteorologists play up the threats and play down the uncertainties.

The current 2006 season could well be the case of "crying wolf" that leads to many people simply ignoring seasonal forecasts. Will the forecaster be believed in some future year when all of the indicators are overwhelmingly pointing to a disastrous season?

And what happens when a season is forecast to be light in activity, and then a monster like Hurricane Andrew roars ashore, like in 1992? Does it make sense for the public to make any important decisions based upon a science that is so uncertain?

All we can do is ask the questions. At a minimum, the public needs to know that seasonal forecasts have more entertainment value than accuracy. Yes, the Hurricane Center has all the probability information included in their seasonal forecasts. But people either do not understand those probabilities, or they tend to ignore them.

Every year should be considered to be a potentially busy season. Major hurricanes can form in both light and active seasons, and people should not be taking undue risks based upon a 60% chance of a below normal season.

And a word of caution about the current round of global warming hysteria: Even if global warming is causing some storms to be stronger than normal, Category 5 hurricanes have always existed and always will. Coastal residents should not be distracted from the reality of the yearly threat of major hurricanes by some theory that, in the end, has relatively little to do with the natural threat these storms pose to coastal residents.

 2006 TROPICAL STORMS & HURRICANES


2006 Tropical storm and hurricane advisory pages
become active if and when the storms form.

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Names are chosen in advance by a committee of the World Meteorological Organization, and are recycled every 6 years (except for unusually intense and damaging hurricanes, whose names are then retired).